Exploring the Science in Science Fiction
Drakes Equation is nothing but groundless speculation and should not be regarded as serious science.As far as we know for sure there is only one planet in the universe inhabited by intelligent life. And based on the evidence of this one single known occurance it is simply impossible, i.e., beyond the purview of probability theory, to assign a real number ratio that predicts the likelihood of intelligent life occurring elsewhere; and indeed it is intellectual hubris/dishonesty to presume that you can.The SETI Project loves to trot out the Drake Equation to justify its existence and solicit funding, but it's just a marketing canard. The same one that Frank Drake used to advance his own professional career.Drake was influence by Otto Struve who opined;"An intrinsically improbable event may become highly probable if the number of events is very great. ... [I]t is probable that a good many of the billions of planets in the Milky Way support intelligent forms of life."No mystery where Drake picked up this pseudo-science legerdemain!
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